This post is about fitting a curve through a set of points. This is called regression: It is also the classic problem of coming up with a generalization from a discrete training data set in machine learning. We have a set of points that are observations at specific places and we want to make a system that predicts what the likely observations should be at all places within the domain of interest. We use the given observations (a training set) to train a modelĀ and then when we get more observations (a test set) we can evaluate how much error there is in our Continue reading

# Tag Archives: bayesian

# The Raven and the Shoe

*The hypothesis that all ravens are black is logically equivalent to the statement that all non black things are non ravens, and this is supported by the observation of a white shoe.*

This is a paraphrasing of a famous paradox due to Hempel. There is a lot of fairly impenetrable discussion on the Wikipedia page about this paradox, some of which I believe to be incorrect, and so I include a readable resolution based on a Bayesian perspective here, and I also relate this issue to our ability to know the truth Continue reading